IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jfeppp/jfep-10-2023-0310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The 2016 US presidential election, opinion polls and the stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Kamal Upadhyaya
  • Raja Nag
  • Demissew Ejara

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the 2016 presidential election polls on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical model includes daily stock returns as the dependent variable and past asset prices, 10-year treasury rates, opinion polls and VIX (market uncertainty) as explanatory variables with a one-year lag. The model was estimated using two sets of daily polling data: from July 1, 2015, to November 8, 2016, and from June 1, 2016, to November 8, 2016. Additional descriptive statistics, such as means and standard deviations, were also calculated. Findings - The estimated results did not reveal any statistically significant effects of opinion polls in favor of one candidate over another on stock returns. Simple statistical tests, however, show that the market performed better when Trump held a polling advantage over Clinton. Originality/value - To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the only study that has examined the effects of the 2016 presidential election polls on the US stock market. This study adds value to the understanding of the relationship between election polls and the stock market in the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal Upadhyaya & Raja Nag & Demissew Ejara, 2023. "The 2016 US presidential election, opinion polls and the stock market," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(2), pages 194-204, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-10-2023-0310
    DOI: 10.1108/JFEP-10-2023-0310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-10-2023-0310/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-10-2023-0310/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JFEP-10-2023-0310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clinton; Trump; Presidential election; Opinion poll; Stock market; E44; G10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-10-2023-0310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.