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Liquidity management and monetary transmission: empirical analysis for India

Author

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  • Vikas Charmal
  • Ashima Goyal

Abstract

Purpose - A change in monetary operating procedures provides a natural experiment which is used to evaluate, first, whether Indian monetary policy transmission is better when durable liquidity is in surplus or when it is in deficit; second whether it is better with interest rates as the policy instrument or quantity of money or a mixture of the two. Design/methodology/approach - This study first shows that the period of analysis can be divided into two separate regimes one of liquidity surplus (2002–2010) and the other of deficit (2011–2019).This study then estimates separate structural vector auto-regressions (SVARs) for the financial and real sector, with relevant exogenous foreign, policy and other variables for each of the periods as well as SVARs for the whole period with alternative operating instruments. Findings - Monetary transmission from the repo rate was better during the period the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) was in surplus with the central bank in absorption mode denoting excess durable liquidity. Pass through was faster and the repo rate had a greater influence on other variables. The impact of the rate on output gap exceeds that on inflation. The weighted average call money rate was found to outperform others as the operating target. Monetary policy has evolved so that policy rates are more effective in transmission compared to money supply, but best results are when durable liquidity is also in surplus. Originality/value - The results contribute to ongoing debates on the Indian monetary policy framework and give useful inputs for policy in emerging markets where research is scarce. They suggest keeping the LAF in deficit mode over 2011–19 was not optimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikas Charmal & Ashima Goyal, 2021. "Liquidity management and monetary transmission: empirical analysis for India," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(5), pages 850-875, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-07-2020-0359
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-07-2020-0359
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    2. Chetan Ghate & Kenneth M. Kletzer (ed.), 2016. "Monetary Policy in India," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-81-322-2840-0, November.
    3. Goyal, Ashima & Agarwal, Deepak Kumar, 2020. "Policy transmission in Indian money markets: The role of liquidity," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Jain, Rajeev, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A Peep Inside the Black Box," MPRA Paper 50903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary transmission; Liquidity deficit and surplus; Repo rate; Instrument; Operating target; E52; E58; E65;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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