Can infrastructure connectivity promote agricultural trade between China and countries along the “belt and road initiative”?

Purpose - Infrastructure connectivity is an important factor affecting regional agricultural trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship and nonlinear effect of infrastructure on agricultural trade in the “belt and road initiative” (BRI). Design/methodology/approach - Using data spanning 2010–2022, this study investigates the threshold effects of infrastructure connectivity on agricultural trade across 109 BRI countries, using principal component analysis and threshold modeling. Findings - The analysis reveals substantial advancements in infrastructure development within countries associated with the BRI. Infrastructure demonstrates double-threshold effects on agricultural trade, exhibiting varied impacts at different threshold levels. Notably, the synergistic impact of combined transportation and communication infrastructure on agricultural trade surpasses the individual contributions of transportation or communication infrastructure alone. Research limitations/implications - The current research methodology and data constraints preclude a detailed heterogeneity analysis of agricultural products by industry. This aspect is slated for enhancement in future research. Originality/value - This study provides evidence for evaluating the nonlinear impact of infrastructure on the trade of agricultural products in China. It also analyzes the threshold effects of different infrastructures and trade in different agricultural products.