IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ijhmap/v4y2011i1p18-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing a forecast model to predict movement of older Americans into retirement housing

Author

Listed:
  • Karen M. Gibler
  • J. Sherwood Clements

Abstract

Purpose - Expectations of an aging population increases the need for accurate models and reliable forecasts of housing demand in the later stages of life. This paper aims to examine whether the only published forecasting model predicts the actual movement of older Americans into retirement housing. Design/methodology/approach - A logistic regression model is used to test which older movers chose retirement housing using data from the 2002 and 2004 Health and Retirement Survey. Findings - Age is found to have a positive relationship with the choice to move into retirement housing, but the other socioeconomic variables are not significant and the model is not robust. Research limitations/implications - More investigation is necessary to identify the variables that will provide a reliable estimate of those choosing retirement housing. Segmented by housing type may be necessary rather than estimating total retirement housing demand. Originality/value - The paper tests whether a model previously used to forecast senior housing demand actually predicts housing choice. It demonstrates that additional research is needed to develop models that can more accurately estimate demand in this growing segment of the housing market in aging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen M. Gibler & J. Sherwood Clements, 2011. "Testing a forecast model to predict movement of older Americans into retirement housing," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 18-30, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijhmap:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:18-30
    DOI: 10.1108/17538271111111811
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17538271111111811/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/17538271111111811/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/17538271111111811?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijhmap:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:18-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.