Structural analysis of factors affecting the housing in Tabriz metropolis: a future study approach

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to survey the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in Tabriz and its comparison with urban areas of the province and the country (Iran) and identify the key indicators on the future of the housing situation in the Tabriz metropolis. Design/methodology/approach - Statistical yearbooks, the censuses of different periods and the documentary-environmental scanning methods are used to collect the data and matrix of crossed impact multiplications applied to a classification (MICMAC) software is used for analyzing the data. Findings - The results show that during the years 1976 to 2016, the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing in Tabriz have improved. Also, by obtaining the environmental scanning method, 61 factors were selected in 5 areas that have the greatest impact on the future of housing in the Tabriz metropolis. Finally, 11 key factors that have the most impact on the future of housing in the Tabriz metropolis were selected. These factors are economic growth, inflation, household income and savings, land and housing prices, sanctions, exchange rate changes, bank facilities, unemployment rates, political changes, purchasing power and management style. Among these factors, economic factors play the most important role, and political-managerial factors come in the next place. Originality/value - This paper proves two issues, namely, the housing market in Iran, especially in the metropolis of Tabriz is strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors and the political situation of society and slogans of housing market reform without fundamental changes and reforms in both economic and political sectors of society are demagogic and illogical.