House prices during the COVID-19 pandemic: the impact of “panic” returnees migrants to New Zealand

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the effects of the “panic” returnees who quickly returned back into New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic, given that the country was a perceived “safe haven” during that time and thus having some impacts on its national housing market. Design/methodology/approach - This empirical study combines the autoregressive distributed lag framework and the instrumental variable approach to analyse the causal relationship between “panic” returnees and housing market dynamics in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings - The findings reveal that returnees were the major driver of increases in both short- and long-term house prices, although other longstanding factors such as rental prices, mortgage rates and supply constraints on new housing developments are also important. Policy recommendations and housing programmes are accordingly discussed. Originality/value - To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first study on what is termed “panic” returnees. Therefore, it contributes to the understanding of housing market dynamics in the context of international mobility and economic disruptions, in addition to paving the way for targeted policy recommendations and housing programmes to address affordability challenges.