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Does tourism affect house prices in Turkey? Evidence from smooth structural break tests

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  • Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım
  • Cagin Karul

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of tourism activities on house prices in Turkey from January 2010 to March 2020. Design/methodology/approach - It is used newly developed cointegration and causality tests based on Fourier approximation. These methods consider smooth structural breaks and do not need to recognize a priori date number and/or form of breaks. Findings - Empirical findings show that international tourism activities have a substantial role in the escalation of house prices in Turkey. Findings also indicate a rise in industrial production enhances house prices while the mortgage lending rate exhibits a negative influence on house prices. Additionally, the evidence from Fourier causality tests reveals the unilateral causal linkage from tourism to house prices. This situation also shows that the tourism sector has a substantial role in stabilizing house prices’ rapid rise as a policy implication. Originality/value - Although a large number of papers have been analyzing the link between house prices and macroeconomic variables, this study eliminates the lack of papers examining the link between tourism and house prices in Turkey by using the new cointegration and causality methods that consider smooth structural changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Cagin Karul, 2021. "Does tourism affect house prices in Turkey? Evidence from smooth structural break tests," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 1033-1052, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-03-2021-0035
    DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-03-2021-0035
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; Housing market analysis; House prices; Tourism; Fourier approximation; Smooth breaks; C22; R31; Z32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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