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Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Evidence of asymmetry in developing countries


  • Magda Kandil
  • Ida Aghdas Mirzaie


Purpose - The paper aims to examine asymmetry in the cyclical behavior of private consumption in a sample of nine developing countries in the Middle East. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical model includes three policy variables: government spending, the money supply, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these variables are likely to vary with agents' forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals and, therefore, determine planned consumption. Unanticipated policy changes, in contrast, determine cyclical consumption. Findings - The results indicate that fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical. The stabilizing function of policy shocks varies across countries and appears to be asymmetric within countries. Originality/value - Asymmetry necessitates a thorough evaluation of the positive and negative effects attributed to changes in policy variables and the necessary reforms to relax binding constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2007. "Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Evidence of asymmetry in developing countries," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 83-105, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijdipp:v:6:y:2007:i:2:p:83-105

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kremer, Michael R., 1998. "Patent Buyouts: A Mechanism for Encouraging Innovation," Scholarly Articles 3693705, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Marin C. Gemmill & Joan Costa-Font & Alistair McGuire, 2007. "In search of a corrected prescription drug Elasticity estimate: a meta-regression approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 627-643.
    3. Michael Kremer, 1998. "Patent Buyouts: A Mechanism for Encouraging Innovation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1137-1167.
    4. DiMasi, Joseph A. & Hansen, Ronald W. & Grabowski, Henry G., 2003. "The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-185, March.
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