Profitability, risk and cash flow deficit for beginning cow–calf producers

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to estimate the amount of cash flow deficit, if any, needed to maintain the operating costs and service debt of a startup cow–calf enterprise. The study compares long-term profitability and risk between starting small and building a herd to full carrying capacity or by starting at desired herd capacity. Design/methodology/approach - A dynamic cattle growth model was developed to capture expanding and maintaining the desired herd size. Discounted cash flow (DCF) models over a 15-year period were calculated to estimate net present value (NPV), modified internal rate of return (MIRR) and cash flow deficit to keep the business operating and service debt. Simulation analyses were conducted considering price and production risk. Findings - Starting at the desired herd size was preferred, according to NPV/MIRR and cash flow deficit, but the differences were not substantial. Assuming the operation is liquidated at book values, there was a 36.3% probability of this enterprise having a zero or positive NPV. If the conservative terminal value assumption is relaxed up to feasible market values, the cow–calf enterprise is economically attractive at an estimated 2.4% opportunity cost of capital. However, the producer would experience a cash flow deficit during the first seven years, which was simulated to be $14,892 and $15,985 annual for both strategies. Originality/value - Innovative methods used in this study include varying the annual opportunity cost of capital as a function of financing decisions, stochastic prices by cattle type and stochastic weaning weights that are a function of a dynamic cattle model.