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BID: hacia una economía menos volátil. Progreso económico y social en América Latina, Informe 1995

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  • Raúl Aníbal Feliz

    (Profesor-investigador. División de Economía, CIDE. México, D.F. Mexico.)

Abstract

Los economistas del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) nos ofrecen en su informe del año de 1995 –Progreso económico y social en América Latina– un interesante y exhaustivo análisis de la relación entre el crecimiento económico y su volatilidad en la región latinoamericana. En este análisis el BID atribuye a la gran volatilidad tanto de las políticas macroeconómicas como de los términos de intercambio de estos países la causa principal de su relativamente bajo crecimiento económico en las últimas décadas. Si esta volatilidad hubiera sido igual a la de los países industrializados, la tasa de crecimiento económico de la región habría sido un punto porcentual mayor que la registrada. En términos de impacto económico, esta volatilidad supera la de la inversión física y es de magnitud similar a la del capital humano inicial. Estos resultados son en parte similares a los que presentan Ramey y Ramey (1995) quienes, utilizando una metodología distinta y muestras de otros países, encuentran una relación negativa, estadísticamente significativa y aparentemente robusta entre el crecimiento económico y la volatilidad de sus perturbaciones. No obstante lo anterior, el análisis del BID no está libre de problemas conceptuales y la metodología econométrica que utiliza no parece ser muy robusta.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Aníbal Feliz, 1995. "BID: hacia una economía menos volátil. Progreso económico y social en América Latina, Informe 1995," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 357-362, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:4:y:1995:i:2:p:357-362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 520-536.
    4. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1992. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 183-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    6. Michele Lloyd, 1992. "The New Zealand approach to central bank autonomy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 55, Septemebe.
    7. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-631, August.
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