IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/emc/ecomex/v19y2010i1p5-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The End-of-Sample Problem in Output Gap Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Arturo Antón Sarabia

    () (Profesor-investigador, División de Economía, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), México, D.F.)

Abstract

This paper evaluates to what extent the end-of-sample problem inherent to the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter may be ameliorated when estimating the output gap. For that purpose, the filter of St-Amant and van Norden (1997) is proposed using Mexican data under both univariate and multivariate methods. As a reference, the filter of Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) and a simple linear trend method are also used. On average, the results suggest that both the univariate method of St-Amant and van Norden and the linear trend method may significantly decrease the end-of-sample problem of the HP filter. These results are used to interpret the conduct of monetary policy in Mexico during 2001-2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Arturo Antón Sarabia, 2010. "The End-of-Sample Problem in Output Gap Estimates," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 5-29, January-J.
  • Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:5-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/num_anteriores/XIX-1/01.EM.ArturoAntonEM(5-29).pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Marginal income tax rates and economic growth in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 409-417, April.
    2. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    4. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    5. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13.
    6. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Tesar, Linda L., 2005. "Why hasn't tax competition triggered a race to the bottom? Some quantitative lessons from the EU," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 163-204, January.
    7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October.
    8. Thomas Dalsgaard, 2000. "The Tax System in Mexico: A Need for Strengthening the Revenue-Raising Capacity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 233, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP trend; output gap; end-of-sample problem; Mexico.;

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:5-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Tiscareño). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.