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Potential GDP and Total Factor Productivity: Recessions and Expansions in Mexico

  • Ernesto Acevedo Fernández

    ()

    (Profesor, División de Estudios de Posgrado, Facultad de Economía, UNAM.)

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    Potential GDP and the NAIRU of Mexico are estimated using a Cobb-Douglas production function combined with a Kalman filter, under the assumption of three different behaviors of total factor productivity. A growth accounting exercise is carried out to identify the factor contribution of labor and capital. Results show that during 2006-2007 potential growth of Mexico was between 3.7 and 4.3 per cent. The economic cycles experienced in Mexico are characterized, and its recessions and expansions are dated. During 1980-2007 economic recessions and expansions lasted on average 7.0 and 13.3 quarters, respectively; that means recessions in Mexico are 121.1 per cent longer than in the US, while expansions are 46.8 per cent shorter. As a consequence of economic recessions, Mexico lost 16.1 per cent of its gdp and more than 1.2 million workers were fired.

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    File URL: http://www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/num_anteriores/XVIII-2/02_ErnestoAcevedoFernandez_(175-219).pdf
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    Article provided by in its journal Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA.

    Volume (Year): XVIII (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July-December)
    Pages: 175-219

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    Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:18:y:2009:i:2:p:175-219
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