The uncertainty of incomes of the state budget in 2001

In the article the reality of the planned incomes in the budget for the year 2001 was analyzed. Among the two basic macro-economic indices accepted for the construction of the budget forecast of the growth of the gross national product (GNP) is too optimistic (4.5%). Most probably the growth of GNP in 2001 will not exceed 4.0%. At a coefficient of flexibility of the incomes of the state budget with respect to GNP amounting to 0.2, a lower growth of GNP by 0.5% would mean smaller budget incomes from those assumed by about 800 million zloties. The forecast of the second macro-economic index accepted for construction of the budget inflation at a level of 7% seems to be more accurate. If no essential unpredictable inflation-genic factors occur, the real growth of the prices of consumer goods and services will be shaped probably in accordance with that forecast. Then the influence of inflation on the budget incomes would not diverge from the level accepted in the budget law. The article points out also to the too optimistic forecasting of the incomes from the excise tax and income tax from physical persons.