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Return Predictability in Emerging Equity Markets


  • Ian Garrett

    (Manchester School of Accounting and Finance, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK)

  • Spyros Spryrou

    (Middlesex University Business School, Middlesex University, UK)


Emerging equity markets are becoming increasingly important to the investment community as more and more assets are invested in them. This makes the issue of whether emerging equity markets are efficient an increasingly important one. In this paper we test for random walks and seasonal patterns in emerging equity market indices. Results from tests based upon the variance of monthly returns suggest that returns in emerging equity markets do not follow a random walk process and hence are predictable. Further, while the results indicate that emerging markets are efficient relative to the January effect, there is evidence of significant day-of-the-week effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Garrett & Spyros Spryrou, 1998. "Return Predictability in Emerging Equity Markets," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 2(2), pages 135-144, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekn:ekonom:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:135-144

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets


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