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Economic change and political shifts: The role of unions in Brazil's deindustrialization era (2002-2022)

Author

Listed:
  • Fabiano Guilherme Mendes Santos

    (Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

  • Yago de Souza Paiva

    (Fundação Getulio Vargas, Escola de Políticas Públicas e Governo, Brasília, DF, Brazil)

  • Rafael Shoenmann de Moura

    (Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

  • Camila Leite Vaz da Silva

    (Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

Abstract

Studies increasingly demonstrate that deindustrialization impacts electoral performance, affecting left- and right-wing parties differently. However, there is limited analysis of the mechanisms linking deindustrialization to voting patterns. This paper tests the hypothesis that union weakening is a key mediating factor in this relationship. Analyzing Brazilian presidential elections (2002-2022), the study finds that municipalities experiencing both deindustrialization and union decline exhibit stronger effects of industrial loss on voting. The results suggest that the erosion of organized labor, driven by deindustrialization, is crucial to understanding current electoral dynamics, highlighting the importance of this mechanism in shaping political outcomes. JEL Classification: A11; C13; C23; D72.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabiano Guilherme Mendes Santos & Yago de Souza Paiva & Rafael Shoenmann de Moura & Camila Leite Vaz da Silva, 2026. "Economic change and political shifts: The role of unions in Brazil's deindustrialization era (2002-2022)," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, FGV EAESP, vol. 46(3), pages 263787-2637, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:46:y:2026:i:3:id:98987
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    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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