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The Multi-sectoral Thirlwalls Law with capital flows: an analysis of the national export plan (2015-2018) using computational simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Guilherme Jonas C. da Silva

    (Professor Adjunto do Instituto de Economia e Tutor do Grupo “PET Economia” da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia.)

  • Júlio Fernando Costa Santos

    (Doutorando em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia.)

  • Lívia Nalesso Baptista

    (Doutoranda em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Uberlândia.)

Abstract

This paper aims to advance the debate on Multi-sectoral Thirlwall’s Law, including sectorial capital flows and its implications for the new Brazilian economy's growth strategy, which aims to stimulate exports through diversification of products, the aggregation value and increased technology intensity of Brazilian exports. To this end, it develops a multi-sectoral model with sectorial capital flows and, as a result, are carried out some computer simulations considering the main sectors and economic partners of the country (China, United States and the Euro block). The results suggest that the best strategy is to encourage specific sectors, that is, increase the participation of the sectors that the country has comparative advantage in relation to each of its trading partners (Manufactured – US, Semi-manufatured – Europe, Primary – China). Despite the results obtained in the simulation, the model templates proposed by Hausmann et al. (2004), can generate the acceleration of economic growth. Thus, the National Plan for Exports (2015-2018) should give preference to the expansion of incentives to sectors that have high ratios of elasticity in the sense of Thirlwall. JEL Classification: O41; C63.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilherme Jonas C. da Silva & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & Lívia Nalesso Baptista, 2017. "The Multi-sectoral Thirlwalls Law with capital flows: an analysis of the national export plan (2015-2018) using computational simulations," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 37(3), pages 636-655, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekm:repojs:v:37:y:2017:i:3:id:95255
    DOI: 10.1590/0101-31572017v37n03a10
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    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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