European experience of early identification of macroeconomic imbalances: recommendations for Ukraine

The article presents the experience of establishing a system for the early identification of macroeconomic imbalances and introduction of the procedure for their correction in the EU member states. Considered the main components: methodology, normative legal basis, and results. The author investigates methodological and monitoring materials related to the detection of macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the main indicators of living standards developed in Ukrainian state executive bodies. It has been proved that official analytical materials are insufficient to identify the main macroeconomic imbalances, as well as the fact that Ukraine has neither a mechanism for responding to identified imbalances nor a system for the prevention of crisis phenomena. The author provides various recommendations on the introduction of mechanisms for the early detection of macroeconomic imbalances and the implementation of systemic measures for their correction. To monitor the domestic imbalances, author proposes the main indicators of the macrostructural institutional scoreboard; and, to monitor the external ones – indicators of the scoreboard of foreign economic imbalances, as well as indicators for the scoreboards of labor activity and social imbalances. To make decisions on prevention or correction of imbalances, it is proposed to create, at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, a Commission for the Prevention and Correction of Macroeconomic Imbalances whose authorities would include a compulsory expertise (with the right of rejection) of all bills that could provoke emergence or strengthening of macroeconomic imbalances.