Estimation of potential losses in Ukraine's foreign trade from the presumable changes in FTA-CIS tariff regimes

The article discusses the issue of unilateral increase of import tariff rates for particular goods originating in Ukraine in FTA-CIS trade after the creation of FTA between EU and Ukraine. Losses in export revenue of domestic producers are estimated for various scenarios of tariff rate changes. The authors define the list of goods whose export to the Russian Federation/Custom Union would stop after the latter have increased import duties to the level of MFN regime of Russian Federation in WTO. Various measures that Ukraine could potentially take in response to possible changes in FTA-CIS tariff regime were discussed, and conclusions were made about the inadvisability of increasing Ukraine’s import duties in trade with the Custom Union, in the framework of FTA-CIS, to the level of this country’s MFN regime in WTO. In order to restrict trade in particular goods with CU states, the authors suggest implementing various WTO contingency measures (safeguards, anti-dumping, countervailing).