Forecasting and assessment of greenhouse gas emissions with ""times-Ukraine"" model

The article presents calculations of the projected GHG emissions in Ukraine until 2020 and further until 2050, based on the optimization model of the energy system ""TIMES-Ukraine"". Results show that GHG emissions in 2020 will not exceed half of the 1990 value, which would correspond to Ukraine's commitments under the second period of Kyoto Protocol. Considering Ukraine's possible target not to exceed in 2050 50% of the 1990 emission level, in case of the low rates of economic development with certain elements of the energy balance optimization, a 15% (according to UN forecasts) decrease in country's population, insignificant increase in the housing stock and observance of the commitments to the European Energy Community, such an objective could be attained without considerable efforts. However, low GDP growth rates and population decrease cannot be Ukraine's national goals so one may expect a more rapid socio-economic development. In this context, achieving the aforementioned target by 2050 would require the effective economic instruments' implementation to encourage technological modernization and introduction of the low-carbon economy model of Ukraine. Under different scenarios of economic growth various guidelines to reduce GHG emissions are presented. The latter are based on encouraging energy efficiency and energy saving, the use of renewable energy sources, raising the national energy and ecological security and carrying out restructuring measures in order to increase the share of economic activities with high value added and low energy intensity. Besides, the article calls for the introduction of a flexible system of GHG emissions taxation and domestic trade in emission permits.