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Turkiye’de Uzun Donem Genis Para (M2Y) Talebinin Tahmini: Zamanla Degisen Katsayilar Yonteminden Bulgular

Author

Listed:
  • Salih GENCER

    (Cukurova Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Ibrahim ARISOY

    (Cukurova Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

Abstract

Bu calismada reel para talebinin, reel gelir, faiz orani, enflas yon ve doviz kuru degiskenleri ile etkilesimleri ampirik olarak incelenmek suretiyle Turkiye ekonomisi icin 1989Q1-2010Q4 doneminde uzun donem reel para talebi fonksiyonu tahmin edilmeye calisilmistir. Analiz donemi icerisinde Turkiye ekonomisinde gozlenen finansal krizler, yuksek enflasyon ve doviz kuru dalgalanmalari dikkate alinarak reel para talebi fonksiyonunun tahmininde geleneksel sabit katsayili (ARDL Sinir Testi) tahmin yonteminin yani sira Kalman Filtre Teknigine dayali Zamanla Degisen Katsayilar modelinden yararlanilmistir. Ilk asamada gerceklestirilen sabit katsayili ARDL Sinir Testi sonuclari reel para talebi ile reel gelir, faiz orani, enflasyon ve doviz kuru degiskenleri arasinda uzun donemli bir iliskinin varligina isaret etmistir. Degiskenler arasinda saptanan bu uzun donem iliskisine dayanarak uzun donem reel para talebi fonksiyonu ikinci asamada zamanla degisen katsayilar yontemi ile tahmin edilmistir. Sonuclar uzun donemde reel para talebinin faiz ve enflasyondaki degisimlerden negatif, reel gelir ve doviz kurundaki degisimlerden ise pozitif yonde etkilendigini gostermektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Salih GENCER & Ibrahim ARISOY, 2013. "Turkiye’de Uzun Donem Genis Para (M2Y) Talebinin Tahmini: Zamanla Degisen Katsayilar Yonteminden Bulgular," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 515-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:515-526.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Is There a Change in the Money Demand Stability in Turkey? A Nonlinear Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 28-42, 06-2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Para talebi; ARDL; zamanla degisen katsayilar; kalman filtre; merkez bankasi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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