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Surekli Gelir Hipotezinin Alternatif Bir Testi: Zamanlararasi Tuketim Dalgalanmalari, Ulusal Nakit Akimi ve Cari Islemler Aciklari

Author

Listed:
  • Sabri AZGUN

    (Yuzuncu Yil Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye’nin cari islemler hesabinin zamanlararasi tuketim dalgalanma modeli tahmin edilmis ve Turkiye’nin dis performansindaki gelismeleri tahmin etmek icin geri odeme yetenegi kapasitesi incelenmistir. Modelde, cari islemler hesabi hâsila, yatirim ve kamu harcamalarina gecici soklar karsisinda ozel kisilerin tuketimlerini dalgalandirabildikleri tampon olarak tanimlanmaktadir. Ampirik sonuclar, Turkiye’nin cari tuketim lehine gelecekte yapacagi tuketimden vazgectigini ortaya koymaktadir. Turkiye’nin cari tuketimi optimal yolunda dalgalanmamaktadir. Gerceklesen ve optimal dis borc yukumlulukleri kapsaminda, elde edilen tahmin sonuclari Turkiye ekonomisinde geri odeme yetenegi kosulunun saglanamadigini ortaya koymaktadýr.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabri AZGUN, 2011. "Surekli Gelir Hipotezinin Alternatif Bir Testi: Zamanlararasi Tuketim Dalgalanmalari, Ulusal Nakit Akimi ve Cari Islemler Aciklari," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 601-609.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:11:y:2011:i:4:p:601-609
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