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Efectos de movimientos del Tipo de Cambio Real en un Modelo teórico para Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Huanto

    (Universidad de Chile)

  • Cesar Ramos

    (Universidad Mayor de San Andrés)

Abstract

El presente documento analiza los efectos que modificaciones del tipo de cambio tendrían en la economía boliviana. La teoría señala que esta política mejora la balanza comercial dado que los precios de exportación se vuelven más competitivos con respecto a los competidores, siempre y cuando se cumpla la condición Marshall-Lerner. Para estudiar este efecto se estima la ecuación de la balanza comercial, y para complementar el análisis se calculan ecuaciones de demanda y oferta agregada con los dos socios comerciales más importantes de Bolivia (Argentina y Brasil), utilizando el Método Generalizado de Momentos (GMM). Los resultados señalan que una devaluación es contraproducente para la balanza comercial y el producto de la economía.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Huanto & Cesar Ramos, 2020. "Efectos de movimientos del Tipo de Cambio Real en un Modelo teórico para Bolivia," Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana, Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas de Bolivia, vol. 3(2), pages 85-114, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:efp:journl:v:3:y:2020:i:2:p:85-114
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balanza comercial; Tipo de cambio; Demanda y oferta agregada; Series temporales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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