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Vanjski dug: Izmecu opreza i straha

Author

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  • Velimir Šonje

    (Arhivanalitika d.o.o. Zagreb)

Abstract

Model konvergencije koji prevladava u Europi zasniva se na ubrzanju rasta koje je praceno deficitom na tekucem racunu platne bilance, rastom vanjskoga duga i – opcenito, mecunarodnom financijskom integracijom. U takvim je uvjetima posve normalno da indikatori vanjske zaduženosti rastu te je promašeno mjeriti opasnost od vanjske zaduženosti standardnim indikatorima kao što je omjer vanjskoga duga i BDP-a. Taj se pokazatelj na velikom uzorku zemalja nalazi u pozitivnoj korelaciji s dostignutom razinom gospodarskog rasta. Isto vrijedi i za udjel banaka u ukupnome vanjskom dugu. Ti indikatori ne mogu služiti za predvicanje financijskih kriza. Krize i njihove posljedice puno se bolje predvicaju pomocu takozvanih pokazatelja ranjivosti u kojima kljucnu ulogu igraju kratkorocni vanjski dug i koncept neto mecunarodnih rezervi. Pokazatelji te vrste ne ukazuju na neposrednu opasnost od izbijanja i/ili na velike posljedice ako financijska kriza izbije u Hrvatskoj radi usporavanja ili preokreta tokova mecunarodnoga kapitala. Zbog toga bi kreatori politike trebali puno vecu pozornost posvetiti konzervativnijoj fiskalnoj i strukturnoj politici te institucionalnim reformama.

Suggested Citation

  • Velimir Šonje, 2008. "Vanjski dug: Izmecu opreza i straha," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 14(2), pages 431-462.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:431-462
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