IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Commodity Prices, Interest Rate Spreads and the Exchange Rate: Useful Monetary Policy Indicators or Redundant Information?


  • Susanne M. Polley

    () (Economics Department, SUNY Cortland)

  • Raymond E. Lombra

    () (Economics Department, Penn State University)


We employ actual data from both private and public sector forecasters to conduct a simple, yet stringent test of the potential usefulness of indicator variables for the conduct of monetary policy. That is, we examine whether commodity prices, interest rate spreads and exchange rates can explain incipient errors in the economic forecasts developed by the Fed's staff and the ASA-NBER panel. Our results suggest that these variables do not contain additional information beyond that which policymakers have already incorporated in their forecasts. Hence, monitoring these variables further will not significantly enhance the accuracy of their forecasts, as the information in these variables is largely redundant.

Suggested Citation

  • Susanne M. Polley & Raymond E. Lombra, 1999. "Commodity Prices, Interest Rate Spreads and the Exchange Rate: Useful Monetary Policy Indicators or Redundant Information?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 129-140, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:25:y:1999:i:2:p:129-140

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11718 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Exchange Rates; Fed; Interest Rates; Interest; Monetary Policy; Monetary; Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:25:y:1999:i:2:p:129-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.