Linking Urban Form and Restriction Duration: A Multi-City Analysis of Off-Hour Delivery in China

Off-hour delivery (OHD)—shifting freight activity to evening or night hours—has been promoted globally to reduce congestion and improve logistics efficiency, yet existing studies rarely explain how urban form and freight restrictions interact to shape nighttime freight movement patterns. This study addresses that gap by asking why some cities achieve higher nighttime freight movement intensity under similar regulatory conditions and how spatial structure mediates the effects of restriction duration. Using a large operational dataset from one of China’s leading intra-city freight platforms combined with detailed land-use and policy indicators, we estimate Beta regression models capturing both direct and interaction effects. The results reveal that the impact of land use on OHD is conditional rather than uniform, varying systematically with the stringency and duration of truck restrictions. Policy simulations based on “14th Five-Year Plan” targets illustrate the planning relevance of these relationships. The study advances urban freight research by integrating spatial and regulatory perspectives and offers evidence-based guidance for coordinating land-use planning, logistics-space provision, and time-window policies to support sustainable urban logistics.