Spatial relocation of logistics facilities in Beijing, China: Decoupling the influencing factors and unveiling the role of policy

A clear grasp of the spatiotemporal dynamics of logistics facilities constitutes a foundational step in guiding sustainable and resilient urban development. Yet, these dynamics remain difficult to explain quantitatively because of the complex interplay of multiple factors and the statistical challenges posed by excess zeros and spatial heterogeneity in facility distributions. Here, we develop an integrated framework combining zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and compare its performance with conventional global models and other existing integrated approaches. Using Beijing as a case study, we identify and quantify the key factors associated with the relocation of logistics centers and distribution centers between 2014 and 2020. The results indicate that road density, distance to highway entrance/exit, and economic conditions were important factors associated with the redistribution of logistics centers, whereas the locations of distribution centers were more strongly associated with road density, population, and housing price. The outward relocation observed in 2014–2018 was associated with the policy context of relieving Beijing of non-capital functions. Supplementary static two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences (TWFE-DID) results further support a significant net policy effect on the contraction of logistics centers in the treated inner-ring areas, while the redistribution of distribution centers appears to have been more strongly associated with transport accessibility and demand-related conditions. The reorganization observed in 2020 coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and appears to reflect heightened concerns about public-health needs and supply-chain stability. Supplementary DID evidence indicates a significant association between COVID-19 severity and stronger contraction of logistics centers, whereas the spatial response of distribution centers appears to have been mediated more through accessibility and delivery conditions. Overall, the combined evidence from the ZINB-MGWR and supplementary TWFE-DID analyses provides a more nuanced understanding of the mechanisms associated with logistics facility relocation in Beijing, offering useful insights for urban logistics planning and resilient metropolitan development.