Evolutionary patterns in LNG maritime port communities using a high-order temporal analysis

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping is a sensitive barometer of geopolitical shifts: changes in shipping routes between ports reveal how trade alliances are being restructured. We propose a higher-order temporal network framework to track cooperation between global LNG ports and quantify how these relationships respond to major events. Using global vessel trajectory data from 2022 to 2023, we infer port-level cooperation trends, track the formation/dissolution of port clusters and contract renewals. The results show that 88.2% of countries renewed existing partnerships, and stronger cooperation intentions contribute to stabilizing port cluster structures. We propose the RPI index, which shows high correlation with the Energy Security Index in developed countries. The RPI quantifies the extent to which countries are affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with countries having military/trade cooperation with Russia or developing countries adjacent to the US exhibiting extremely high RPI values. It can also be used to illustrate the division of labour among ports within the same country. Furthermore, the results indicate that exporting countries are seeking new markets; the US and Russia increased their connections with new partners by 8.2% and 2.7%, respectively, while transshipment patterns in Europe also changed, particularly in Spain and France. Overall, the proposed framework provides an event-aware perspective for detecting restructuring in the LNG supply chain and offers quantitative support for policy making in the global LNG shipping network.