Geopolitical disruptions and sustainability imperatives: a structural model of value chain and supply chain transformation in maritime logistics

The maritime logistics sector faces growing pressure to adapt its operations in response to escalating geopolitical disruptions and sustainability imperatives. This study develops and empirically tests an integrated structural model to examine how geopolitical shocks and sustainability requirements influence value chain restructuring, supply chain reconfiguration, and overall supply chain performance. Drawing on global value chain theory and the dynamic capabilities framework, the model is evaluated using data from 154 senior executives in the maritime logistics sector. Measurement constructs are validated through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and hypotheses are tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). Results reveal that sustainability requirements exert a stronger influence on long-term value chain restructuring, while geopolitical shocks significantly affect both value chain restructuring and supply chain reconfiguration. In particular, geopolitical shocks display a significant direct effect on tactical reconfiguration and a stronger effect on strategic restructuring, which in turn cascades into downstream reconfiguration. Both restructuring and reconfiguration are found to significantly enhance supply chain performance. This research offers novel empirical evidence on adaptive capabilities in maritime logistics, contributing to the theoretical understanding of supply chain resilience and informing policy and managerial strategies in an era of systemic disruption.