Unraveling structural shifts and resilience patterns of global and intercontinental crude oil maritime transportation networks under geopolitical conflicts: A multiplex network model

In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the varying operational tasks and economic drivers lead to distinct route and port selection strategies for laden and ballast crude oil tankers, reflecting functional and structural heterogeneity within the crude oil maritime transportation network (COMTN). This paper proposes a multiplex network model with laden and ballast layers to characterize the COMTN. Taking the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a case study, we examine changes in the global and four intercontinental COMTNs between 2021 and 2023. Specifically, we characterize the network structure using multiple empirical metrics, and characterize resilience by two dimensions of robustness and adaptability. We construct a redistribution model to characterize the dynamic adjustment of COMTN. Furthermore, we design a deliberate attack scenario based on the duplex collective influence (DCI) score of ports and four historical disruption scenarios to assess network resilience. Results show that the shift in global transport center of transport flows and regional reconfiguration alter the hierarchical importance of ports in the laden/ballast layer and significantly affect the average path cost (APC). After the conflict, resilience increases in the Middle East–East Asia (ME–EA) and Middle East–Europe (ME–EU) corridors but decreases in the North America–Europe (NA–EU) and North America–East Asia (NA–EA) corridors. These findings offer valuable insights for stakeholders and policymakers seeking to better understand the complex transport relationships in COMTN and enhance network resilience.