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The perfect storm: Evaluating the spillovers in the new energy vehicle industrial chain under multiple uncertainties

Author

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  • Li, Zhengzheng
  • Liu, Yixuan
  • Li, Xin
  • Wang, Kai-Hua

Abstract

Policy uncertainties affect the stability and development of the new energy vehicles (NEVs) industry. To examine the impact of multiple policy uncertainties on the industrial chain, this study constructs an industrial chain risk spillover index based on a vector autoregression model. Then, the joint quantile impulse response function, which can simultaneously account for the correlation of uncertainties and the heterogeneity of impacts, is employed to identify the comprehensive effect of uncertainty shocks on different quantile conditions. The results indicate the presence of significant risk spillover effects within the NEVs industrial chain. Specifically, the upstream and downstream sectors mainly serve as risk transmitters, whereas the midstream segments emerge as risk receivers. Further analysis reveals that the effects of multiple policy uncertainties on the industrial chain exhibit regime-dependent characteristics. The joint shocks of policy uncertainty suppress risk spillovers within the industrial chain when spillovers are low, but intensify them under other conditions, producing a perfect storm effect. These findings provide investors and policymakers with new perspectives for understanding the dynamics of the NEVs market and mitigating risk contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhengzheng & Liu, Yixuan & Li, Xin & Wang, Kai-Hua, 2026. "The perfect storm: Evaluating the spillovers in the new energy vehicle industrial chain under multiple uncertainties," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:87:y:2026:i:c:s0160791x26002083
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2026.103419
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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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