How to evaluate the uncertainties and risks of 6G development? An exploration based on the risk matrix method

With the successful commercialization of 5G mobile communication systems and the completion of 5G international standards, countries and regions with strong competitiveness in the field of mobile communication have begun to pay attention to the development of 6G technology standards, and have successively conducted research in the 6G field, proposing 6G related policies that are in line with their own development. At present, 6G has made certain progress and breakthroughs in vision goals, application scenarios, basic indicators, and potential key technologies. However, there are still uncertainties and risks in the development of 6G. Unlike existing research on 6G security or challenges, which mostly focuses on specific perspectives such as communication theory, standard setting, key technologies, application services, and privacy protection, and adopts qualitative methods for comprehensive research, this study is based on the risk management process of the Risk Management Guidelines released by the International Organization for Standardization in 2018. It uses the Delphi method to sort and judge the five types of uncertainties/risks and their 24 sub factors in the development of 6G, and then uses the Risk Matrix method based on Borda Count method to calculate the probability and impact of various uncertainties and risks, and ranks their importance. Finally, this study provides hedging strategies for different uncertainties and risks, thereby providing decision support for risk control in the development of 6G.