Technology assessment through a hybrid scenario-based decision Making: Case of wind energy

This study combines the CRITIC and DEMATEL methods and introduces a new hybrid scenario analysis approach that identifies cross-scenario strategies. We use Taiwan's wind energy industry as a case study to validate the process. Although scenario analysis has been applied across various fields and organization types—including strategic planning, education, training, and recent environmental issues—scholars have highlighted problems such as the subjectivity of qualitative analysis and the lack of quantitative evidence. To address this, this study integrates scenario analysis with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis to support decision makers in conducting scenario evaluations. We achieve this by applying a multi-criteria approach to analyze the weights of uncertainty axes and causal relationships, leading to management prioritization that yields near-optimal decision analysis and enhances decision quality. Our methodology is validated with a case study in Taiwan's wind energy sector. In the best-case scenario, Taiwan's green energy substitution rate surpasses 20 %, simultaneously fostering new industrial chains in green manufacturing, energy storage, and carbon management. Conversely, under a pessimistic scenario, challenges such as land acquisition issues, tense international relations, grid delays, or regulatory uncertainties could limit renewable energy penetration to below 20 %.