Industrial upgrading policies and export resilience: An empirical assessment of technology investment in Taiwan's manufacturing sector

Amid global digital transformation and the restructuring of manufacturing supply chains, enhancing export resilience has become a central focus of industrial policy. Although many countries have promoted technology upgrading and capital incentives, empirical evaluations of their industry-level structural effects remain limited. This study examines Taiwan's manufacturing sector from 2016 to 2023, employing a fixed-effects panel model to assess the impact of technology investment penetration (a proxy for policy-driven investment) on export structure performance. The results show that technology investment significantly enhances export orientation and maintains positive effects during external shocks. However, early transformation stages exhibit increased volatility and lagged effects, reflecting a dynamic pattern where short-term instability coexists with long-term upgrading. The effects of policy incentives are moderated by industrial scale; outcomes in sectors with a higher proportion of large enterprises tend to be more pronounced but exhibit greater short-term fluctuations. By proposing an integrated structural-dynamic framework, this study shows that technology-oriented investment not only drives upgrading and technology absorption but also reinforces export stability and industrial resilience. These findings offer timely policy insights for export-oriented economies undergoing similar transitions.