Forecasting the human cost of disasters under Sustainable Development Goal: A time series analysis using Facebook Prophet model

Globally, disasters continue to claim thousands of lives every year, with limited progress in reducing these fatalities. However, challenges related to data availability, accessibility, and standards obscure the efforts to establish a clear relationship between natural hazards, climate change, disasters, and resulting impacts, especially the human cost, e.g., fatalities. Addressing these gaps is critical to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11.5, which aims to ”significantly reduce deaths and the number of people affected by disasters by 2030.” This study addresses these challenges by utilizing two comprehensive global datasets covering 168 countries. We applied Facebook Prophet models to forecast disaster-related deaths from 2024 to 2030, using historical data from 2001 to 2023. The analysis involved calculating annual mortality rates for each country and forecasting future rates to assess progress toward SDG 11.5. Results reveal an average global mortality rate of 13.38 deaths per million people, with significant variability across countries. While some nations are on track to meet reduction targets, others require urgent interventions to address rising vulnerability and strengthen disaster preparedness. By improving data tracking, forecasting capabilities, and targeted interventions, this study provides a foundation for achieving substantial reductions in disaster-related deaths and advancing global resilience.