Policy initiatives and socio-economic impact of sustainable transportation: A case study of electric buses in India

This study examines the socio-economic feasibility of adopting electric buses (EBs) in public transportation in developing countries, with a specific case study of India, while addressing challenges, such as high capital costs, limited model appeal, and technological constraints. It evaluates EB adoption policies by integrating the widely used economic factors with the often overlooked environmental and social dimensions, and analyzes the effectiveness of government financial incentives in overcoming adoption barriers. We propose a system dynamics model to simulate the adoption of EBs and address key questions for designing and implementing effective policy incentives. The model evaluates the impact of electric vehicle policies in India's public bus sector, categorized into financial incentives and electrification rate policies. Various policy scenario simulation results reveal that phased electrification with static subsidies offers the most robust strategy, while a dynamic subsidy variant provides additional fiscal flexibility in terms of extra savings and enabling more sustainable financial management for low- and middle-income countries. Our findings offer actionable insights for policymakers by presenting a structured framework to guide catch-up strategies and strategic decisions under budgetary constraints, thereby facilitating an efficient transition to EBs for a more sustainable future.