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Diverging impacts of official and new development assistance on global value chain upgrading in belt and road initiative countries

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  • Jing, Yijia
  • He, Yu
  • Qian, Haoqi

Abstract

This paper examines how two distinct development aid models—official development assistance (ODA) and New Development Assistance (NDA)—shape different pathways of global value chain (GVC) upgrading in Belt and Road Initiative countries. Our empirical findings reveal a systematic contrast between the two aid regimes. NDA is primarily associated with deeper vertical specialization, while ODA is linked to simultaneous improvements in both domestic value creation and vertical embedding. These direct effects, however, operate through different transmission channels. Mediation analyses indicate that NDA is more consistently connected to the enhancement of economic capacity and innovation accumulation, whereas ODA exhibits limited influence on economic capacity and even a negative association with innovation outcomes. This study contributes to the literature by comparing the roles of emerging and traditional donors in the international aid architecture and their divergent implications for GVC upgrading.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing, Yijia & He, Yu & Qian, Haoqi, 2026. "Diverging impacts of official and new development assistance on global value chain upgrading in belt and road initiative countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 198-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:79:y:2026:i:c:p:198-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.04.013
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