Smart governance for sustainable development: Stage-specific effects and regional heterogeneity in a global empirical framework

Multiple frameworks have been used to explore the relationship between smart governance and sustainable development. However, three critical gaps persist: theoretical fragmentation, insufficient contextual analysis, and limited cross-country comparisons. Based on the triple-bottom-line theory and a dynamic coupling framework, this study systematically examines the staged evolutionary effects of smart governance on sustainable development and regional heterogeneity. Our hybrid research framework applies entropy-weighted comprehensive evaluation, feasible generalized least squares, and instrumental variable approaches to multi-source authoritative data from 159 countries spanning the period from 2003 to 2020. First, the results indicate that smart governance’s promoting effect increases with maturity. Second, the data reveal staged impacts. In the initial stage, hybrid governance drives economic growth, while in the middle stage, collaborative governance enhances institutional efficiency. In the long term, network governance reinforces climate action, while social equity remains inadequately addressed. Third, significant regional heterogeneity exists. Finally, mechanistically, smart governance operates through optimized business environments, improved institutional quality, and reduced climate vulnerability. However, its negative association with social trust highlights increased digital divide risks. This research provides dual perspectives on stage-specific adaptation and regional coordination for differentiated governance strategies.