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Emission transfers of toxic chemical pollutants among NAFTA Countries: A structural change approach

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  • Kagawa, Shigemi
  • Tokito, Shohei
  • Fujii, Hidemichi
  • Okamoto, Shunsuke
  • Nagashima, Fumiya

Abstract

This study develops a spatial structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to identify the drivers of toxic chemical emissions induced by global final demand. Focusing on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region, we analyze emissions of hundreds of toxic chemicals in the United States, Canada, and Mexico and examine whether trade growth from 2006 to 2014 increased regional emissions. The results reveal a rapid increase in the net transfer of toxic chemical emissions from the United States to Mexico, driven mainly by structural changes in bilateral trade. By 2014, these transfers accounted for 2.8 % of Mexico’s toxic chemical emissions triggered by global final demand. Critical pollution-intensive supply chain paths were identified, such as U.S. final consumption linked to paper manufacturing in Mexico. Strengthening the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation through greener cross-border supply chain governance is therefore recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Kagawa, Shigemi & Tokito, Shohei & Fujii, Hidemichi & Okamoto, Shunsuke & Nagashima, Fumiya, 2026. "Emission transfers of toxic chemical pollutants among NAFTA Countries: A structural change approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 327-344.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:77:y:2026:i:c:p:327-344
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.017
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