Assessing structural changes in factor contributions to green productivity growth in China's grain sector

This paper extends the analytical framework for measuring total factor productivity (TFP) in grain production by incorporating the environmental constraints related to pollution emissions. Employing a growth accounting approach, we decompose environmentally adjusted grain output growth into the contributions of labor, productive capital, and natural resource capital. This comprehensive indicator system provides a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of grain output growth while evaluating its long-term sustainability. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, the analysis integrates pollution emissions associated with grain production. The findings reveal a gradual decline in the dependence on agricultural chemicals, indicating a structural shift from traditional factor inputs toward green total factor productivity (GTFP) as the main engine of growth. Industry structural, human capital, and income level are shown to influence to the GTFP growth, suggesting that social and institutional factors play a key role in shaping GTFP trajectories. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed in both the contributions of production factors and their decomposition characteristics. In eastern regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, the annual average growth in grain output is primarily driven by GTFP improvements. Labor input contributes significantly to more developed regions including Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Chongqing. Conversely, productive capital input plays a greater role in the central, western, and northeastern regions, with natural resource capital makes relatively higher contributions in the northeastern provinces.