IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Limitations on intermittent forecasting

Listed author(s):
  • Morvai, Gusztáv
  • Weiss, Benjamin
Registered author(s):

    Bailey showed that the general pointwise forecasting for stationary and ergodic time series has a negative solution. However, it is known that for Markov chains the problem can be solved. Morvai showed that there is a stopping time sequence {[lambda]n} such that P(X[lambda]n+1=1X0,...,X[lambda]n) can be estimated from samples (X0,...,X[lambda]n) such that the difference between the conditional probability and the estimate vanishes along these stoppping times for all stationary and ergodic binary time series. We will show it is not possible to estimate the above conditional probability along a stopping time sequence for all stationary and ergodic binary time series in a pointwise sense such that if the time series turns out to be a Markov chain, the predictor will predict eventually for all n.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Statistics & Probability Letters.

    Volume (Year): 72 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 4 (May)
    Pages: 285-290

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:72:y:2005:i:4:p:285-290
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    Order Information: Postal:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:72:y:2005:i:4:p:285-290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.