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Calculating the variance of errors in population forecasting

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  • Jöckel, Karl-Heinz
  • Pflaumer, Peter

Abstract

For judging the quality of population forecasting methods, the root mean square error (RMSE) has proven to be a useful tool. A suitable variance component model is proposed for calculating the variance of the RMSE. The method is demonstrated by an example.

Suggested Citation

  • Jöckel, Karl-Heinz & Pflaumer, Peter, 1984. "Calculating the variance of errors in population forecasting," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 211-213, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:2:y:1984:i:4:p:211-213
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    Cited by:

    1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1993. "Measuring the accuracy of population projections: An application of exploratory data analysis," Discussion Papers, Series II 199, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    2. Bruns, Gerd, 1991. "Fehleranalyse von Bevölkerungsprognosen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Migration," Discussion Papers, Series II 145, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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