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On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners

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  • Stępniak, Czesław

Abstract

In two-candidate election the votes are counted in random order. Suppose that candidate A was the leader until the 9th vote. How may we use this information in predicting the future winner? To this aim we derive distributions of the first leadership time both for the winner and loser. Our conclusion is rather surprising.

Suggested Citation

  • Stępniak, Czesław, 2015. "On distribution of the leadership time in counting votes and predicting winners," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 109-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:106:y:2015:i:c:p:109-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2015.06.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miller, Gregory K. & Fridell, Stephanie L., 2007. "A Forgotten Discrete Distribution? Reviving the Negative Hypergeometric Model," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 61, pages 347-350, November.
    2. Lengyel, Tamás, 2011. "Direct consequences of the basic Ballot Theorem," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(10), pages 1476-1481, October.
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