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Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television

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  • Solow, John
  • Reilly, Patrick
  • von Allmen, Peter

Abstract

This paper provides one of the first tests of the within-game uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. We examine the relationship between the demand for nationally televised regular season NBA basketball viewing and outcome uncertainty while the games are being played. We use granular television viewing and scoring data and account for the dynamics of television viewing. We find evidence of modest but statistically significant effects of outcome uncertainty on the size of the TV viewing audience which occur largely at the end of the game, supporting the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. These effects are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We also find evidence of a sizable independent loss of viewers at halftime and the end of games that is unrelated to outcome uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Solow, John & Reilly, Patrick & von Allmen, Peter, 2024. "Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television," Sports Economics Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:specre:v:8:y:2024:i:c:s2773161824000211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044
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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

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