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Contact process with viral load

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  • Seiler, Marco

Abstract

In this article, we present two novel variants of the contact process. In the first variant individuals carry a viral load. An individual with viral load zero is classified as healthy and otherwise infected. If an individual becomes infected it begins with a viral load of one, which then evolves according to a Birth-Death process. In this model, viral load indicates severity of the infection such that individuals with a higher load can be more infectious. Moreover, the recovery times of individual is not necessarily exponentially distributed and can even be chosen to follow a power-law distribution. In the second variant individuals are permanently infected albeit in two states: actively infected or dormant. The dynamics of these individual states are again governed by a Birth-Death process. Dormant infections do not interact with neighbouring individuals but may reactivate spontaneously. Active infections reactivate dormant neighbours at a constant rate and may become dormant themselves. We present for both variants a Poisson construction. For the first model, we study the phase transition of survival and discuss existence of a non-trivial upper invariant law. Additionally, we derive a duality relationship between the two variant, which we use to uncover a phase transition regarding invariant distributions in the second variant.

Suggested Citation

  • Seiler, Marco, 2026. "Contact process with viral load," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:196:y:2026:i:c:s0304414926000402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2026.104908
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