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Arcade processes for informed martingale interpolation

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  • Kassis, Georges
  • Macrina, Andrea

Abstract

Arcade processes are a class of continuous stochastic processes that interpolate in a strong sense, i.e., omega by omega, between zeros at fixed pre-specified times. Their additive randomisation allows one to match any finite sequence of target random variables, indexed by the given fixed dates, on the whole probability space. The randomised arcade processes (RAPs) can thus be interpreted as a generalisation of anticipative stochastic bridges. The filtrations generated by these processes are utilised to construct a class of martingales that interpolate between the given target random variables. These so-called filtered arcade martingales (FAMs) are almost-sure solutions to the martingale interpolation problem and reveal an underlying stochastic filtering structure. In the special case of conditionally Markov randomised arcade processes, the dynamics of FAMs are informed by Bayesian updating. The same ideas are applied to filtered arcade reverse-martingales, which are constructed in a similar fashion, using reverse-filtrations of RAPs, instead. Several explicit examples for RAPs and FAMs are provided and simulated. This paper concludes with an outlook on potential connections between FAMs and martingale optimal transport, and related applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Kassis, Georges & Macrina, Andrea, 2026. "Arcade processes for informed martingale interpolation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:196:y:2026:i:c:s0304414926000359
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2026.104903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorje C. Brody & Lane P. Hughston & Andrea Macrina, 2008. "Information-Based Asset Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 107-142.
    2. Julian Sester, 2023. "On intermediate Marginals in Martingale Optimal Transportation," Papers 2307.09710, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    3. Julian Sester, 2023. "On intermediate marginals in martingale optimal transportation," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 17, number 2, March.
    4. Hoyle, Edward & Hughston, Lane P. & Macrina, Andrea, 2011. "Lévy random bridges and the modelling of financial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(4), pages 856-884, April.
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