IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v82y2026ics0275531925004544.html

Interest rate risk supervision and bank capital management: What can the new prudential standards tell us?

Author

Listed:
  • Curcio, Domenico
  • Gianfrancesco, Igor
  • Iannuzzi, Antonia Patrizia
  • Onorato, Grazia

Abstract

The prudential regulation on interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) is experiencing an important evolution following the publication of the new Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) standards in 2016. Based on a sample of 30 small and medium size Italian commercial banks over the period 2006–2023, we examine the main regulatory innovations and the related criteria for determining the appropriate amount of internal capital to cover IRRBB. Our results show that the new rules are more prudential than past rules because they specifically remove some distorting effects, such as the risk neutrality phenomenon and can lead to a higher average measure of risk exposure. However, when compared to more sophisticated methodologies based on simulation techniques, the new rules lead to an ex-ante risk exposure that is less consistent with that actually observed ex post. Noteworthy implications in terms of a proper definition of internal capital to set aside against IRRBB are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Iannuzzi, Antonia Patrizia & Onorato, Grazia, 2026. "Interest rate risk supervision and bank capital management: What can the new prudential standards tell us?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:82:y:2026:i:c:s0275531925004544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531925004544
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beutler, Toni & Bichsel, Robert & Bruhin, Adrian & Danton, Jayson, 2020. "The impact of interest rate risk on bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Coulier, Lara & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2024. "Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2950, European Central Bank.
    3. Claußen, Catharina & Platte, Daniel, 2023. "Evaluating the validity of regulatory interest rate risk measures – a simulation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Şener, Emrah & Baronyan, Sayad & Ali Mengütürk, Levent, 2012. "Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 849-873.
    6. Abdymomunov, Azamat & Gerlach, Jeffrey, 2014. "Stress testing interest rate risk exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-301.
    7. Oliver Entrop & Marco Wilkens & Alexander Zeisler, 2009. "Quantifying the Interest Rate Risk of Banks: Assumptions Do Matter," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(5), pages 1001-1018, November.
    8. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    9. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    10. Cerrone, Rosaria & Cocozza, Rosa & Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor, 2017. "Does prudential regulation contribute to effective measurement and management of interest rate risk? Evidence from Italian banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-138.
    11. Chaudron, Raymond F.D.D., 2018. "Bank's interest rate risk and profitability in a prolonged environment of low interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 94-104.
    12. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Drehmann, Mathias & Sorensen, Steffen & Stringa, Marco, 2010. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 713-729, April.
    14. Susan Thomas & Mandira Sarma & Ajay Shah, 2003. "Selection of Value-at-Risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 337-358.
    15. Dal Borgo, Mariela, 2022. "Internal models for deposits: Effects on banks' capital and interest rate risk of assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Gregory E. Sierra & Timothy J. Yeager, 2004. "What does the Federal Reserve's economic value model tell us about interest rate risk at U.S. community banks?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Nov), pages 45-60.
    17. James A. Embersit & James V. Houpt, 1991. "A method for evaluating interest rate risk in U.S. commercial banks," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Aug, pages 625-637.
    18. Peter Hoffmann & Sam Langfield & Federico Pierobon & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2019. "Who Bears Interest Rate Risk?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(8), pages 2921-2954.
    19. James V. Houpt & David M. Wright, 1996. "An analysis of commercial bank exposure to interest rate risk," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 82(Feb), pages 115-128, February.
    20. Esposito, Lucia & Nobili, Andrea & Ropele, Tiziano, 2015. "The management of interest rate risk during the crisis: Evidence from Italian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 486-504.
    21. Wilkens, Marco & Memmel, Christoph & Entrop, Oliver & Zeisler, Alexander, 2008. "Analyzing the interest rate risk of banks using time series of accounting-based data: evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cerrone, Rosaria & Cocozza, Rosa & Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor, 2017. "Does prudential regulation contribute to effective measurement and management of interest rate risk? Evidence from Italian banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-138.
    2. Galen Sher & Giuseppe Loiacono, 2013. "Maturity Transformation and Interest Rate Risk in Large European Bank Loan Portfolios," EcoMod2013 5442, EcoMod.
    3. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2015. "Dynamic models for monetary transmission," DEM Working Papers Series 106, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Claußen, Catharina & Platte, Daniel, 2023. "Evaluating the validity of regulatory interest rate risk measures – a simulation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Coulier, Lara & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pancotto, Livia & Reghezza, Alessio, 2025. "Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities," Working Paper Series 3140, European Central Bank.
    6. Laura Parisi & Igor Gianfrancesco & Camillo Gilberto & Paolo Giudici, 2015. "Monetary transmission models for bank interest rates," DEM Working Papers Series 101, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Memmel, Christoph, 2011. "Banks' exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 282-289, February.
    8. Laura Garcia‐Jorcano & Alfonso Novales, 2021. "Volatility specifications versus probability distributions in VaR forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 189-212, March.
    9. Serhat Yuksel & Sinemis Zengin, 2016. "Identifying the Determinants of Interest Rate Risk of the Banks," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(6), pages 12-28, October.
    10. Andrey Yu. Nevela & Victor A. Lapshin, 2022. "Model Risk and Basic Approaches to its Estimation on Example of Market Risk Models," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 91-112, April.
    11. Chaudron, Raymond F.D.D., 2018. "Bank's interest rate risk and profitability in a prolonged environment of low interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 94-104.
    12. Chiu, Yen-Chen & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2016. "The performance of the switching forecast model of value-at-risk in the Asian stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 43-51.
    13. Georges Tsafack & James Cataldo, 2021. "Backtesting and estimation error: value-at-risk overviolation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1351-1396, September.
    14. Foos, Daniel & Lütkebohmert, Eva & Markovych, Mariia & Pliszka, Kamil, 2017. "Euro area banks' interest rate risk exposure to level, slope and curvature swings in the yield curve," Discussion Papers 24/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    16. Raymond Chaudron, 2016. "Bank profitability and risk taking in a prolonged environment of low interest rates: a study of interest rate risk in the banking book of Dutch banks," DNB Working Papers 526, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Molyneux, Philip & Pancotto, Livia & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d'Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Interest rate risk and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Guiso, Luigi & Pozzi, Andrea & Tsoy, Anton & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2022. "The cost of steering in financial markets: Evidence from the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1209-1226.
    19. Stojanovic, Dusan & Vaughan, Mark D. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2008. "Do Federal Home Loan Bank membership and advances increase bank risk-taking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 680-698, May.
    20. Schmidhammer, Christoph & Hille, Vanessa & Wiedemann, Arnd, 2020. "Performance of maturity transformation strategies," Discussion Papers 58/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:82:y:2026:i:c:s0275531925004544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.