Decoupling effects and impact mechanisms of carbon emissions in China's plantation system

As a critical nexus for both grain production and carbon emissions, the synergistic development of the plantation system is of strategic importance for realizing China's “dual-carbon” goal. A comprehensive assessment of the decoupling status and its driving factors between these dimensions provides critical reference for developing countries in achieving the dual global goals of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).This study employs a Tiered Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (TH-LCA) to quantify carbon emissions from China's crop cultivation system from 2000 to 2022, evaluating its decoupling effects, underlying mechanisms, and decarbonization potential. Key findings include: First, core production zones exhibited a 5 % increase in emissions, predominantly in a weak decoupling state. Second, structural optimization of cropping systems and clean energy adoption emerged as primary drivers, while labor allocation efficiency positively moderated emissions. Conversely, scale expansion and energy intensity inertia acted as systemic barriers. Third, scenario simulations predict that under the conventional development scenario, emissions will reach 297.71 Mt by 2030. In contrast, the moderate decoupling pathway and deep low-carbon scenario could reduce emissions to 280.16 Mt and 277.53 Mt, representing decreases of 5.89 % and 6.78 % compared to the CDS, respectively. This study provides a theoretical framework and policy support for comprehensively analyzing carbon emissions in China's crop cultivation system, enhancing system resilience, and promoting synergistic development.