Synergistic effects and mechanisms of green financial reform, environmental regulation intensity, and regional green innovation levels

Using panel data from 2007 to 2023 covering 31 provinces, regions, and municipalities in China, this study systematically investigates the relationships and underlying mechanisms among green finance reform (GFR), the intensity of environmental regulation, and regional green innovation levels (RGIL). The findings indicate that, first, GFR has a significant positive effect on RGIL, and this effect does not display notable heterogeneity across regions. This suggests that national-level policy frameworks can effectively promote balanced regional green innovation. Second, regional environmental penalties significantly moderate the relationship between GFR and RGIL through a “reverse pressure mechanism,” highlighting a policy coordination pathway driven by the dual forces of financial support and compliance incentives. Third, environmental regulation intensity serves as a partial mediator in the link between GFR and RGIL. However, this mediating effect varies markedly across regions with different levels of economic development, reflecting the critical role of regional technological capacity and marketization in shaping policy outcomes. This study advances the understanding of environmental penalties as independent regulatory instruments, addresses gaps in research on policy tool segmentation mechanisms, and reveals the “dual-path” dependence of green financial reform on innovation. It offers a theoretical foundation and practical insights for advancing GFR and serves as a reference for national and regional governments in crafting differentiated environmental regulatory policies.