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Exploring the interplay between eurozone electricity sector stocks, real interest rates and inflation expectations

Author

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  • Esparcia, Carlos
  • Jareño, Francisco
  • Navarro, Eliseo

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between Eurozone electricity sector portfolios and interest rate changes from 2019 to 2022 using quantile regression. We distinguish between changes in nominal interest rates caused by changes in real interest rates and those caused by changes in expected inflation. A new feature is the used of inflation-linked swaps to measure inflation expectations. This decomposition provides a richer view of how variations in nominal interest rates affect electricity portfolios. It indicates that real rate changes significantly impact electricity stock returns, while nominal rate changes due to variations in inflation expectations have a smaller effect. The research splits the sample period into two subperiods: a stable period (2019–2020) and a volatile period (2021–2022). Note that an initial training period to calibrate the electricity portfolio optimization approach (January 2015–December 2018) is also included. We also distinguish between companies based on their debt levels. Our findings support the hypothesis that the European electricity sector is significantly exposed to interest rate changes, with notable differences depending on companies leverage. The impact of interest rate changes on electricity portfolio returns is more pronounced during extreme market conditions, such as bearish market states. However, quantile regression analysis suggests that in certain scenarios, electricity companies can pass on some inflationary shocks to their product prices, particularly during bullish market states.

Suggested Citation

  • Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2025. "Exploring the interplay between eurozone electricity sector stocks, real interest rates and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025004150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104252
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration; European electricity market; Interest rates; Expected inflation rates; Quantile regression; Inflation-linked swaps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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