Feedback-driven adaptation and prevention of climate risks in port-hinterland systems under a hybrid CVaR framework

Port-hinterland systems are vital to international trade yet increasingly exposed to climate risks due to their structural complexity and risk sensitivity. Heterogeneous risk types and divergent sensitivities among port authorities create a resource allocation dilemma between adaptation and prevention. This study addresses this challenge by proposing an analytical framework that links feedback-driven dynamics with asymmetric investment responses. Incorporating hybrid Conditional Value-at-Risk to characterize heterogeneous decision-making under comprehensive risk-sensitive appetites, the model captures a wider spectrum of behavioral disparities. Results show that the proximity between risk sensitivity and expected returns can suppress risk-responsive investment, while heightened sensitivity may trigger extreme preference effects, leading to either overly defensive or excessively aggressive investments. A feedback-loop incentive mechanism, integrating both positive and negative feedback, is developed to reveal the evolving interdependence between adaptation and prevention. The framework provides a rigorous theoretical foundation for understanding climate risk-driven investment behaviors in port operations and strategic management. Practically, it offers actionable insights for embedding climate risk considerations into resilient port infrastructure planning, thereby strengthening the robustness and long-term sustainability of global trade networks.